Friday, 4 April 2008

Futurecasting Introductory - Bob Cotton

Today, Bob gave us a great introductory lecture.

[The new innovation space.]
a video: jeffrandom.com/category/videos/

What is futurecasting?
  • an overview of the new innovation opportunity in the digital media network
  • how to stay abreast of what's going on, and how to innovate in a rapidly changing world

suggested books:

  • The cyberspace lexicon...
  • E-innovation
  • Hyper media...

an intersting video: londonwestside.com

the inspiration timeline (media innovation)

  • http:// soi.coldmedia
  • soi.vizonhost.com

Nicholas Negroponte: Convegence diagram C1983 (need to find)

another ex. Bob showed us:

community < communication < personalization

dynamic media <-- user --> enhenced media

Evoluation of computer Power/Cost

We won't experience 100 years of technology progress in the 21st century: we will witness in the order of 2000 years of progress when measured by the rate of progress in 2000, or about 1000 times hat achieved in the 20th century.

McLuhan: We are driving faster and faster into the future; trying to steer by using only the rear-view mirrow.

John McHale 1969: The future of the past is the present. The future of the preset is the past. The future of the future is the present.

How to futurecast:

  • analyse the present - build a "big picture"
  • delphi circulars
  • trend extrapolation
  • historical analogy
  • senario guilding
  • modeling and simulation
  • forecast aggregation using Google
  • understanding the visionaries
  • history of the next big things
  • imagineering: inventing the future (a term from disney world, design, art and engineering)

Books:

  • cyber space
  • The medium is the massage (Marchall McLuhan, Quentin Fiore)
  • concept mapping (Joseph Novac 1960s)
  • Rob suggested reading: The Age of Spiritual Machines

Videos and some links:

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